Since the end of January of this year, Venezuela continues to remain the main epicenter of the events of world politics. On January 23, the International Coalition of Countries “under the wing” of the White House recognized Juan Guaidó as the interim president of the Bolivarian Republic and put forward an ultimatum to Nicolás Maduro so that he resigned himself as head of state. For several months now, Washington has continued to exert economic and political pressure on the official authorities of Caracas and its strategic partners in Cuba. Encouraged by the rapid success, the protégé of the United States calls for an end to the dictatorship of Maduro. Nevertheless, the receiver Chavez continues to resist, relying on the support of Russia and China. How does Caracas plan to resist the “onslaught” of the White House? What are the chances for Maduro to keep power in the hands of “chavistas”?
For more than three months, the events in Venezuela have riveted the attention of the whole world. The regional crisis in the Latin American country from the first day acquired an international dimension. Today, Caracas has become the barometer of Washington’s diplomacy throughout Latin America. After all, how the White House will behave in relation to the Bolivarian Republic depends not only on the future of the whole continent, but also on the alignment of forces on the world stage.
A new round of political crisis in Venezuela occurred on the morning of April 30, when Juan Guaidó (Spanish – Juan Gerardo Antonio Guaidó Márquez) literally made a “knight’s move”, appearing on videotape in front of the “Carlota” air force base along with other opposition leader Leopoldo López (Spanish – Leopoldo Eduardo López Mendoza), surrounded by people in military uniform. At that moment, such a video of the self-proclaimed president caused a real shock throughout the world and there are a number of justifications for this.
First of all, one of the reasons is the emergence of Guaidó with Leopoldo López, who is the founder of the “Popular Will” party, as well as one of the most important and influential fighters with the current “left” regime. He opposed Hugo Chávez (Spanish – Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías) in 2000. Later, in 2015, López was sentenced to more than 13 years in prison, accusing him of terrorism and murder. However, in 2017, due to health problems, the preventive measure was replaced with house arrest.
It is easy to guess that for Guaidó, the figure of López has a special symbolic meaning. Leopold López “led” the current opposition leader to the political arena, having founded the “Popular Will” Party with him. From the very beginning, López constantly helped Guaidó, so official Caracas called him the “father” of the self-proclaimed president. In addition, it is worth remembering that since his assumption of the post of head of parliament, Juan Guaidó has constantly sought to secure the release of López or the easing of a preventive measure for him.
The second rationale for such a wide resonance from the above video is the place. The headquarters of the Air Force is located in the base “Carlota”, and during the last months, Guaidó has actively tried to win over the military. Realizing that it would be difficult to gain a solid foundation of support from civil society, the opposition hoped to attract security officials in order to resist the chavistas.
The video from Guaidó, behind which the military, supposedly having gone over to the side of “real democracy”, are standing behind a dense flank, according to the plan was supposed to inspire the servicemen to “swear” to Guaidó. However, a day later, the plan of the self-proclaimed president failed miserably.
Immediately after publication, the video instantly hit the video on all international social networks. However, from Nicolás Maduro (Spanish – Nicolás Maduro Moros) more than a day did not receive any information, and other members of the official Caracas refused to comment on the situation.
However, a few hours later, the Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino López made an official statement and said that stability remained in military barracks throughout the country and that the Bolivarian national armed forces remained loyal to the current legal government of Maduro. The minister stressed that 80% of the “rebels” servicemen were dragged into this action by deception, and most of them have already returned to their units. According to him, the opposition brought the soldiers from military units under various pretexts and involved in this event. After the statement of the Minister of Defense of Venezuela, video recordings appeared in all social networks in which the servicemen told how they were embarrassed in order to “involve” them in the attempted coup d’état. The military called such an action a regular act of sabotage and an attempt to push them with the official authorities. Vladimir Padrino López, in his statement, noted that behind this attempted coup d’état was “American imperialism”.
The next day, through his Twitter account, Nicolás Maduro called on the country’s population to “maximize mobilization” and take “nerves in the iron fist” in order to resist the attempted coup. Maduro stressed that the servicemen in conversation with him once again confirmed his loyalty to him.
Authoritative political analysts believe that the main purpose of this small provocation was not the overthrow of the President Maduro. The organizers of the coup attempt tried to find “an excuse for military intervention by the US government”. In this scenario, official Caracas should be extremely careful with opposition supporters and Juan Guaidó.
Of course, the overthrow of Nicolás Maduro would be a great political success of Donald Trump (Donald John Trump) in the region. In turn, Russia continues to support the official Caracas regime, supplying it with humanitarian aid, weapons and military specialists, with the expectation that such a measure of intervention can have an impact on Washington. Thus, Moscow “gave a signal” that it does not intend to remain in the background of world politics. The victory in Venezuela would symbolize for Trump the triumph of the American “model of democracy”. On the other hand, the failure of the United States in the Bolivarian Republic can significantly spoil the image of the current “owner” of the White House before the upcoming presidential elections.
The failed “coup” as if “Groundhog Day” passed according to the standard Venezuelan scenario: first a large-scale and resonant event that attracted world attention, and then the subsequent inaction and lack of a real basis, which deprived the opposition of any chance of seizing power. A similar scenario was already in 2017, after which on January 23 of this year, when Guaidó proclaimed himself the interim head of state. Most likely, this is how events will continue to evolve. Therefore, supporters of Maduro hardly need to worry about their political future.