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Politics

Three ways for Brazil

On October 2, 2022, Brazil will celebrate the long-awaited General Election, in which the country’s citizens will elect a president and vice president, the National Congress, governors, lieutenant governors and state legislatures. 146 million voters will take part in the voting. Despite the fact that the elections are at the end of next year, the intensity of passions is increasing every month. Who are the main favorites of the electoral race today? To whom and why do the Brazilians intend to vote?

Despite the fact that almost ten months remain before the first round of voting, which will be held on October 2 next year, the internal political situation in Brazil is clearly delineated, and there is a deep polarization. The second round (if necessary) will take place on October 30th. The new head of state will hold this post for four years from January 1, 2023.

“Oil on the fire” added a public opinion poll published on December 14 by the authoritative Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion (Port. – Inteligência em Pesquisa e Consultoria Estratégica, IPEC). The poll was conducted from December 9 to 13, 2002 people from 144 municipalities of the country took part in it. The accuracy of the results is 95%. According to the results of this poll, the leader is the “leftist” candidate, ex-president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, one of the most popular politicians in Latin America. Lula da Silva from the “Party of Workers” (Port. – Partido dos Trabalhadores), who already served as head of state in Brazil from 2003 to 2011 and decided to take part in the elections again in 2022, won 48% of the respondents.

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The main favorites of the electoral race are Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro.

His closest opponent, the current leader of the country, Jair Bolsonaro (Port. – Jair Messias Bolsonaro), received the support of 21% of the Brazilians surveyed. The former Minister of Justice and Public Security Sergio Moro (port – Sergio Fernando Moro) rounds out the top three with 6% of the votes cast for him. According to the results of this poll, the total number of votes collected by 11 of Lula da Silva’s opponents is about 38%, which indicates the possibility of his victory in the first round of the presidential race.

Nevertheless, the incumbent president, the candidate from the “right” forces, the “real colonel” and a fan of the Augusto José Ramón Pinochet Ugarte regime, Jair Bolsonaro is not going to give up so easily. In August of this year, at a meeting of evangelical leaders, Bolsonaro openly stated that if he was defeated in the General Election, he would face “death or prison”, such prospects clearly did not suit him.

It is worth noting that “on the sidelines” of this entire pre-election struggle in Brazil, attempts are being made to consolidate supporters of the so-called “third way”, designed to unite the electoral potential of those who are not supporters of the ruling “right”, but also do not openly support socialists. This project is primarily focused on the middle class in Brazil. According to experts, the propaganda of this “way” is being implemented not without the help of the relevant structures of the White House, however, analysts are inclined to believe that these forces will not be able to carry out their plans “on a turnkey basis” even by the second round (if the corresponding candidate is not elected in the first round), but this factor still needs to be taken into account.

Today, Washington is still the main trading partner, the largest foreign investor in the Brazilian economy. For this reason, it is quite obvious that the United States will make every effort to prevent an abrupt return to the “left”. The supporters of the “left” way of Brazil do not doubt that the accusations against Lula da Silva of violating the law and his subsequent arrest, which served as the reason for the removal of his candidacy from the previous elections, also did not go without the intervention of the White House. The charges were later dropped, but the political game is just beginning.

As already mentioned, another candidate was Sergio Moro, who until 2020 worked as Minister of Justice and Public Security in the government of President Jair Bolsonaro, has now decided to try to take the presidency and, according to the latest data, is in third place in the ranking after Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro. Thus, the “third way” represented by Moro is currently on the Brazilian political agenda the nomination of a candidate from the “right” camp, balancing on the discontent of a significant part of the population of the middle class by the socialists and the current government.

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The third way of Brazil in the person of Sergio Moro. Source: Caracol Radio.

Nevertheless, some analysts point out that this is not the only option for the development of the “third way” concept. So far, Moro’s support from the population does not reach even 10%, but the number of those who have not decided on their preferences for whom to vote for is quite large. In the case of the second round, it is the electorate of this candidate that can play a decisive role.

In addition to fighting the pandemic and vaccinations, the main themes of the electoral race are still: fighting corruption, supporting industry and finding new markets. And here, just as opportunely, one of the variables will be Russia, because the fate of the BRICS is at stake (BRICS is an abbreviation for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). According to the news agency “Folha de Spaulo”, in the coming months, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to pay an official visit to Moscow. It is worth emphasizing that this visit, in the midst of the presidential campaign in Brazil, will take place at the invitation of Vladimir Putin. As reported by the “TASS” agency, this invitation was sent on December 1, 2021, while the Russian leader called Brazil “Russia’s strategic partner”. A few months ago, Jair Bolsonaro said that “Russia is a huge market. We will expand our relationship with Russia”. At the same time, he noted the importance of cooperation with China.

A few months before the vote, the intrigue of the pre-election race remains, as a significant percentage of the electorate who has not yet been determined will be able to determine the path of Brazil in the coming years. As you know, the main blow to the Brazilian “left” on the eve of the last elections was inflicted by the “anti-corruption operation Carwash” and the accompanying “charges” of corruption. The inspiration for the implementation of “Carwash”, according to analysts, were the US special services. Interestingly, this time, what kind of operation is planned to eliminate the leftist candidate from the election race in the corridors of the White House? And what is planned is very obvious.

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